Development of a Multivariable Model to Predict the Need for Bone Marrow Sampling in Persons With Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance : A Cohort Study Nested in a Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) are asymptomatic precursor conditions to multiple myeloma and related disorders. Smoldering multiple myeloma is distinguished from MGUS by 10% or greater bone marrow plasma cells (BMPC) on sampling, has a higher risk for progression, and requires specialist management. OBJECTIVE: To develop a multivariable prediction model that predicts the probability that a person with presumed MGUS has 10% or greater BMPC (SMM or worse by bone marrow criteria) to inform the decision to obtain a bone marrow sample and compare its performance to the Mayo Clinic risk stratification model. DESIGN: iStopMM (Iceland Screens, Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma), a prospective population-based screening study of MGUS. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03327597). SETTING: Icelandic population of adults aged 40 years or older. PATIENTS: 1043 persons with IgG, IgA, light-chain, and biclonal MGUS detected by screening and an interpretable bone marrow sample. MEASUREMENTS: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance isotype; monoclonal protein concentration; free light-chain ratio; and total IgG, IgM, and IgA concentrations were used as predictors. Bone marrow plasma cells were categorized as 0% to 4%, 5% to 9%, 10% to 14%, or 15% or greater. RESULTS: The c-statistic for SMM or worse was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.88), and calibration was excellent (intercept, -0.07; slope, 0.95). At a threshold of 10% predicted risk for SMM or worse, sensitivity was 86%, specificity was 67%, positive predictive value was 32%, and negative predictive value was 96%. Compared with the Mayo Clinic model, the net benefit for the decision to refer for sampling was between 0.13 and 0.30 higher over a range of plausible low-risk thresholds. LIMITATION: The prediction model will require external validation. CONCLUSION: This accurate prediction model for SMM or worse was developed in a population-based cohort of persons with presumed MGUS and may be used to defer bone marrow sampling and referral to hematology. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: International Myeloma Foundation and the European Research Council.

Determining hemodilution in diagnostic bone marrow aspirated samples in plasma cell disorders by next-generation flow cytometry: Proposal for a bone marrow quality index.

Hemodilution of bone marrow (BM) aspirates is a limitation of multiparameter flow cytometry (MFC) in plasma cell disorders. There is a need for a validated approach for assessing sample quality and the distribution of non-plasma cell BM populations by MFC could provide a solution. We evaluated BM-associated cell populations, assessed by next-generation flow cytometry (NGF) and white blood cell (WBC) count in 351 BM aspirated samples from 219 participants with plasma cell disorders in the Iceland Screens, Treats, or Prevents MM study (iStopMM), as markers of hemodilution by their discriminatory ability between first and (generally more hemodiluted) second pull BM aspirated samples. The most discriminating markers were used to derive a novel BM quality index (BMQI). Nucleated red blood cells and myeloid precursors provided the greatest discriminatory ability between first vs second pull samples (area under the curve (AUC): 0.87 and 0.85, respectively), significantly better than B cell precursors (AUC = 0.64; p < 0.001), mast cells (AUC = 0.65; p < 0.001), and the BM WBC count (AUC = 0.77; p < 0.05). We generated a novel BMQI that is intrinsic to current NGF protocols, for evaluating quality of diagnostic BM samples and suggest the use of a BMQI scoring system for interpreting results and guiding appropriate actions.

Disease associations with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance can only be evaluated using screened cohorts: results from the population-based iStopMM study.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is an asymptomatic precursor condition that precedes multiple myeloma and related disorders but has also been associated with other medical conditions. Since systematic screening is not recommended, MGUS is typically diagnosed due to underlying diseases and most cases are not diagnosed. Most previous studies on MGUS disease associations have been based on clinical cohorts, possibly resulting in selection bias. Here we estimate this selection bias by comparing clinically diagnosed and screened individuals with MGUS with regards to demographics, laboratory features, and comorbidities. A total of 75,422 participants in the Iceland Screens, Treats, or Prevents Multiple Myeloma (iStopMM) study were screened for MGUS by serum protein electrophoresis, immunofixation and free light chain assay (clinicaltrials gov. Identifier: NCT03327597). We identified 3,352 individuals with MGUS, whereof 240 had previously been clinically diagnosed (clinical MGUS), and crosslinked our data with large, nationwide registries for information on comorbidities. Those with clinical MGUS were more likely to have at least one comorbidity (odds ratio=2.24; 95% confidence interval: 1.30-4.19), and on average had more comorbidities than the screened MGUS group (3.23 vs. 2.36, mean difference 0.68; 95% confidence interval: 0.46-0.90). They were also more likely to have rheumatological disease, neurological disease, chronic kidney disease, liver disease, heart failure, or endocrine disorders. These findings indicate that individuals with clinical MGUS have more comorbidities than the general MGUS population and that previous studies have been affected by significant selection bias. Our findings highlight the importance of screening data when studying biological and epidemiological implications of MGUS.

Iceland screens, treats, or prevents multiple myeloma (iStopMM): a population-based screening study for monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and randomized controlled trial of follow-up strategies.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) precedes multiple myeloma (MM). Population-based screening for MGUS could identify candidates for early treatment in MM. Here we describe the Iceland Screens, Treats, or Prevents Multiple Myeloma study (iStopMM), the first population-based screening study for MGUS including a randomized trial of follow-up strategies. Icelandic residents born before 1976 were offered participation. Blood samples are collected alongside blood sampling in the Icelandic healthcare system. Participants with MGUS are randomized to three study arms. Arm 1 is not contacted, arm 2 follows current guidelines, and arm 3 follows a more intensive strategy. Participants who progress are offered early treatment. Samples are collected longitudinally from arms 2 and 3 for the study biobank. All participants repeatedly answer questionnaires on various exposures and outcomes including quality of life and psychiatric health. National registries on health are cross-linked to all participants. Of the 148,704 individuals in the target population, 80 759 (54.3%) provided informed consent for participation. With a very high participation rate, the data from the iStopMM study will answer important questions on MGUS, including potentials harms and benefits of screening. The study can lead to a paradigm shift in MM therapy towards screening and early therapy.